Municipal de Amarante · Referee Flavio Miguel Gomes Azevedo Duarte · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Amarante vs Portimonense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Amarante and 0.88 for Portimonense, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Amarante the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amarante home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Portimonense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amarante to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 33% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Amarante and 0.88 for Portimonense, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.5%
- 1–015.3%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 2–07.1%
Recent form
Amarante
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte da Barca · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs União de Leiria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica B · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela · 0-0 (D)
Portimonense
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro Daire · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.