Macedonia · First League · Regular Season - 515:00
AresimiWLL

15:00 UTC

Saturday, 29 August 2026

SkopjeLDL

· Analysis updated 06:26 UTC

Aresimi vs Skopje Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Aresimi and 1.36 for Skopje, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Aresimi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Aresimi or Draw

67.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.36

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Aresimi win44%
Draw24%
Skopje win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams to score60%

Correct score

  • 1–111.2%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 1–08.3%
  • 1–27.6%
  • 0–16.9%

Why the model likes this

  • Skopje away threat

    Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Aresimi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.62 goals for Aresimi and 1.36 for Skopje, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Aresimi

    Skopje

    • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 0-3 (L)
    • 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 0-3 (L)
    • 2026-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 2-1 (W)
    • 2026-05-31T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Akademija Pandev · 1-0 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    First League table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Sileks321097
    2Tikveš320186
    3Shkendija220056
    4Struga211034
    5Shkëndija Haraçinë3111-24
    6Bregalnica Štip210123
    7Vardar Skopje210103
    8Aresimi3102-73
    9Skopje3012-61
    10Bashkimi Kumanovo3003-120

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.