Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.83 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Arsenal win

67.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Arsenal win67%

Draw19%

Burnley win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

2–011.8%
1–011.1%
2–19.7%
1–19.2%
3–08.4%

Why the model likes this

Arsenal home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Burnley away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Arsenal and 0.83 for Burnley, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Arsenal

2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 4-1 (W)

Burnley

2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Notts County · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.