Arsenal vs Hull City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Arsenal and 1.14 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Arsenal win40%

Draw27%

Hull City win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–011.3%
0–110.0%
0–08.7%
2–18.4%

Why the model likes this

Arsenal home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hull City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Arsenal and 1.14 for Hull City, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Arsenal

2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-1 (D)

Hull City

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.