AS Roma vs Sassuolo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.79 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives AS Roma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws roughly 38% of the time.

Model pick

AS Roma to Win

61.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.82 – 0.79

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

AS Roma win62%

Draw22%

Sassuolo win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.4%
2–012.2%
1–110.6%
2–19.6%
3–07.4%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Roma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for AS Roma and 0.79 for Sassuolo, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
AS Roma to Win is the headline pick at 62% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

AS Roma

2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 3-3 (D)

Sassuolo

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.