Argentina · Primera Nacional · Matchweek 3118:30

1 – 0

Sunday, 27 September 2026

· Analysis updated 06:23 UTC

Atlanta vs Agropecuario Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Atlanta and 0.66 for Agropecuario, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Atlanta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

77.1% probability

High confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.04 – 0.66

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atlanta home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Agropecuario away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Atlanta win44%

Draw33%

Agropecuario win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

67%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals51%

Over 2.5 goals24%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score31%

Correct score

1–019.0%
0–018.3%
1–112.5%
0–112.1%
2–09.9%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.60 (model 68.8% vs market 58.4%, edge +10.4 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	1.60	58.4%	68.8%	1.45	+10.4
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.70	55.4%	56.0%	1.79	+0.6
Match result	Home	2.10	43.7%	44.0%	2.27	+0.3
Match result	Draw	2.80	32.8%	33.1%	3.02	+0.3
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.22	77.2%	77.1%	1.30	-0.1
Double chance	Home/Away	1.40	67.3%	66.9%	1.49	-0.4
Match result	Away	3.90	23.5%	22.9%	4.37	-0.6
Both teams to score	Yes	2.25	41.6%	31.2%	3.21	-10.4

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Atlanta

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Tucuman · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico DE Rafaela · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Agropecuario · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tristan Suarez · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Atlético Güemes · 2-0 (W)

Agropecuario

2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Y Tiro · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · A vs San Martin Tucuman · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico DE Rafaela · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Jujuy · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · Atlanta 0-0 Agropecuario (Primera Nacional)
2022-07-09T21:00:00.000Z · Atlanta 0-1 Agropecuario (Primera Nacional)
2021-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · Atlanta 0-3 Agropecuario (Primera Nacional)
2021-06-11T23:10:00.000Z · Atlanta 0-1 Agropecuario (Primera Nacional)
2020-12-13T20:10:00.000Z · Atlanta 2-3 Agropecuario (Primera Nacional)
2019-11-02T20:00:00.000Z · Atlanta 2-2 Agropecuario (Primera Nacional)

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	34	19	8	7	10	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	17	9	8	16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	17	7	10	15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	14	12	8	17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	14	12	8	14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	13	12	9	1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	12	12	10	4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	13	9	12	1	48
9	Los Andes	34	9	14	11	1	41
10	Chaco For Ever	34	10	10	14	-3	40
11	Racing Cordoba	34	10	10	14	-10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	8	15	11	-8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	8	14	12	-7	38
14	San Telmo	34	9	11	14	-9	38
15	Central Norte	34	7	16	11	-8	37
16	All Boys	34	6	17	11	-10	35
17	Acassuso	34	8	9	17	-10	33
18	San Miguel	34	6	14	14	-14	32
1	Tristan Suarez	34	16	14	4	18	62
2	Temperley	34	16	12	6	13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	16	10	8	9	58
4	Atlanta	34	18	4	12	7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	14	10	10	6	52
6	Midland	34	14	9	11	11	51
7	Colegiales	34	14	8	12	4	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	13	9	12	7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	12	11	11	2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	34	11	13	10	3	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	12	9	13	-6	45
12	Almagro	34	11	8	15	-10	41
13	Agropecuario	34	10	10	14	-11	40
14	Quilmes	34	10	9	15	1	39
15	Patronato	34	7	16	11	-4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	10	6	18	-9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	9	9	16	-9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	6	8	20	-32	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.