· Analysis updated 13:19 UTC
Atlético CP vs União Santarém Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Atlético CP and 0.93 for União Santarém, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Atlético CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Atlético CP win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético CP home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
União Santarém away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético CP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Atlético CP and 0.93 for União Santarém, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–18.5%
- 3–08.1%
Recent form
Atlético CP
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oliveirense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olímpico do Montijo · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Covilha · 3-0 (W)
União Santarém
- 2026-10-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merelinense · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético CP win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.