Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo · Referee Augusto Alfredo Menendez Laos · Analysis updated 08:06 UTC
Atletico Grau vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Atletico Grau and 0.98 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Atletico Grau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Grau win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Grau home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Grau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Atletico Grau and 0.98 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Atletico Grau
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-2 (D)
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Grau win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.