Bahia vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Bahia and 1.04 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Bahia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Bahia or Draw

71.8% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Bahia win45%

Draw27%

Sao Paulo win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–012.3%
0–19.3%
0–08.9%
2–18.8%

Why the model likes this

Bahia home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sao Paulo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bahia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Bahia and 1.04 for Sao Paulo, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Bahia

2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-21T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-17T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-0 (W)

Sao Paulo

2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-31T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.