Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia · Referee Kevin Ortega, Peru · Analysis updated 22:02 UTC
Barracas Central vs A. Italiano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Barracas Central and 1.16 for A. Italiano, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives A. Italiano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.0% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.5%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–28.4%
Why the model likes this
Barracas Central home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates A. Italiano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 29% / 30% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Barracas Central and 1.16 for A. Italiano, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Recent form
Barracas Central
- 2026-08-09T20:45:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T22:15:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T00:10:00.000Z · H vs Huracan · 1-0 (W)
A. Italiano
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONMEBOL Sudamericana table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macara | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Tigre | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | America de Cali | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 1 | Atletico-MG | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Cienciano | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 3 | Juventud | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Puerto Cabello | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 1 | Sao Paulo | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | O'Higgins | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Boston River | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 2 | Santos | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 1 | Botafogo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Caracas FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Racing Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Independiente | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Gremio | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Deportivo Riestra | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 4 | Palestino | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Olimpia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Vasco DA Gama | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | A. Italiano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Barracas Central | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 1 | River Plate | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | RB Bragantino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Carabobo FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Blooming | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.