Estadio Tito Cucchiaroni · Analysis updated 14:17 UTC
Bartolomé Mitre vs Boca Unidos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Bartolomé Mitre and 0.61 for Boca Unidos, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Bartolomé Mitre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bartolomé Mitre win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bartolomé Mitre home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boca Unidos away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bartolomé Mitre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 27% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Bartolomé Mitre and 0.61 for Boca Unidos, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.6%
- 2–013.2%
- 0–013.1%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Bartolomé Mitre
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-3 (L)
Boca Unidos
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs El Linqueño · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tucuman Central · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bartolomé Mitre win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.