BayArena · Analysis updated 10:42 UTC
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.41 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bayer Leverkusen win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayer Leverkusen home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Nürnberg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.41 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–06.9%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 2-0 (W)
1. FC Nürnberg
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayer Leverkusen win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.