Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion · Analysis updated 16:04 UTC
Bayer Leverkusen W vs Hamburger SV W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen W and 1.28 for Hamburger SV W, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bayer Leverkusen W win
52.1% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bayer Leverkusen W home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hamburger SV W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for Bayer Leverkusen W and 1.28 for Hamburger SV W, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen W
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Berlin W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern Munich W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim W · 2-1 (W)
Hamburger SV W
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Koln W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T11:45:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nürnberg W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Frauen Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | FC Koln W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Union Berlin W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Stuttgart W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 11 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV W | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Nürnberg W | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -21 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayer Leverkusen W win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.