· Analysis updated 23:30 UTC
Beitar Nahariya vs Hapoel Beit Shean Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Beitar Nahariya and 0.92 for Hapoel Beit Shean, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Beitar Nahariya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beitar Nahariya win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beitar Nahariya home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beitar Nahariya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Beitar Nahariya and 0.92 for Hapoel Beit Shean, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 52.2% vs market 46.4%, edge +5.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.4% | 52.2% | 1.92 | +5.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.0% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 52.3% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 47.1% | 47.1% | 2.12 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.4% | 25.2% | 3.97 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.2% | 21.9% | 4.57 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.8% | 78.0% | 1.28 | -1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.6% | 47.8% | 2.09 | -5.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Beitar Nahariya
- 2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beit Shean · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Yarka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Nesher · 1-4 (L)
Hapoel Beit Shean
- 2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Beitar Nahariya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Alef table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tira | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Ironi Nesher | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 3 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Dimona | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Holon Yermiyahu | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Beitar Nahariya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Maccabi Kiryat Malachi | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 8 | Hapoel Hadera | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Hapoel Ramat HaSharon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 11 | Hapoel Herzliya | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | Hapoel Nazareth Illit | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 14 | Hapoel Beit Shean | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 15 | Hapoel Sderot | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Hapoel Azor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 17 | Ironi Beit Shemesh | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Jerusalem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 19 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 20 | Maccabi Ashdod | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 21 | Maccabi K. Ata Bialik | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 22 | Maccabi Yavne | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 23 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 24 | Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 25 | Hapoel Marmorek | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 26 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 27 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 28 | Hapoel Bnei Musmus | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 29 | Hapoel Mahane Yehuda | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 30 | Tzeirey Tamra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 31 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 32 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 34 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 35 | Tzeirey Tira | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -15 | 0 |
| 36 | Nordia Jerusalem | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beitar Nahariya win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.