Benfica vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Benfica and 0.95 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Benfica win

56.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Benfica home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Benfica and 0.95 for GIL Vicente, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Benfica win57%

Draw23%

GIL Vicente win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.7%
1–111.1%
2–010.3%
2–19.8%
0–06.6%

Recent form

Benfica

2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 4-0 (W)

GIL Vicente

2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · Benfica 3-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2026-03-02T20:15:00.000Z · Benfica 2-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2025-09-26T19:15:00.000Z · Benfica 2-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2025-03-28T20:15:00.000Z · Benfica 3-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2024-09-28T19:30:00.000Z · Benfica 5-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2024-02-04T18:00:00.000Z · Benfica 3-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2023-08-26T19:30:00.000Z · Benfica 3-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2023-04-29T19:30:00.000Z · Benfica 2-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2022-11-13T18:00:00.000Z · Benfica 3-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2022-02-02T19:00:00.000Z · Benfica 1-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Benfica win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.