Benfica vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Benfica and 1.26 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Benfica win

55.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Benfica win56%

Draw21%

Villarreal win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–19.5%
2–07.7%
1–07.5%
3–16.6%

Why the model likes this

Benfica home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarreal away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Benfica and 1.26 for Villarreal, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Benfica

2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 6-1 (W)
2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 5-0 (W)
2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 5-1 (W)

Villarreal

2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.