Bezana vs Cayón Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Bezana and 1.25 for Cayón, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Bezana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bezana home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cayón away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Bezana win42%

Draw26%

Cayón win33%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–09.7%
2–18.8%
0–18.4%
1–27.6%

Recent form

Bezana

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Barquereño · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naval Reinosa · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Escobedo · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Albericia · 2-1 (W)

Cayón

2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mineros · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarnizo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tropezón · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-07T15:30:00.000Z · Bezana 0-1 Cayón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2025-10-26T11:00:00.000Z · Bezana 1-2 Cayón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2025-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · Bezana 2-3 Cayón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2024-12-06T11:30:00.000Z · Bezana 1-0 Cayón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2021-03-17T18:30:00.000Z · Bezana 0-5 Cayón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2020-12-12T16:00:00.000Z · Bezana 0-2 Cayón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tropezón	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Bezana	6	5	1	0	8	16
3	Laredo	6	5	0	1	12	15
4	Sámano	6	3	2	1	8	11
5	Revilla	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Cayón	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Torina	6	2	4	0	6	10
8	Vimenor	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Selaya	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	2	0	4	-8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Solares	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Castro	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Escobedo	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Velarde	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Barquereño	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.