BFA vs Kauno Žalgiris II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for BFA and 0.97 for Kauno Žalgiris II, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives BFA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

BFA win

60.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.97 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BFA home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kauno Žalgiris II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BFA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for BFA and 0.97 for Kauno Žalgiris II, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

BFA win61%

Draw21%

Kauno Žalgiris II win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–010.4%
2–010.2%
1–110.1%
2–110.0%
3–06.7%

Recent form

BFA

2026-10-09T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Žalgiris II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Panevėžys · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Atmosfera · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Garliava · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Babrungas · 2-1 (W)

Kauno Žalgiris II

2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jonava · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Žalgiris II · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Atmosfera · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tauras · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Babrungas · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Minija	26	22	1	3	54	67
2	Babrungas	27	21	4	2	35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	17	3	6	20	54
4	Žalgiris II	27	14	4	9	6	46
5	Tauras	26	13	5	8	12	44
6	Dainava	27	12	8	7	12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	14	2	11	0	44
8	BFA	27	13	4	10	0	43
9	Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	5	34
10	Jonava	27	8	6	13	-4	30
11	Garliava	27	8	5	14	-1	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	8	2	17	-25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	7	2	18	-22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	27	4	3	20	-35	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is BFA win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.