Wembley Stadium · Referee J. Smith · Analysis updated 22:07 UTC
Bolton vs Stockport County Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bolton and 1.45 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Stockport County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–08.0%
Why the model likes this
Bolton home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stockport County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Bolton and 1.45 for Stockport County, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Bolton
- 2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
Stockport County
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.