· Analysis updated 11:06 UTC
Borussia Monchengladbach W vs Bayern Munich W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Borussia Monchengladbach W and 1.83 for Bayern Munich W, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Bayern Munich W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayern Munich W win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borussia Monchengladbach W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayern Munich W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayern Munich W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 30% / 23% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Borussia Monchengladbach W and 1.83 for Bayern Munich W, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Borussia Monchengladbach W
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim II W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt II W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Berlin W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern Munich W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt W · 0-0 (D)
Bayern Munich W
- 2026-10-03T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs SL Benfica W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Monchengladbach W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Koln W · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayern Munich W win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.