Brighton vs Tromso Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Brighton and 1.79 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Tromso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.79

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Brighton win35%

Draw23%

Tromso win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.5%
1–28.6%
2–17.8%
2–27.0%
0–15.9%

Why the model likes this

Brighton home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tromso away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tromso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Brighton and 1.79 for Tromso, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Brighton

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-1 (L)

Tromso

2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aalesund · 6-2 (W)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.