Estadio Olimpico de la UCV · Referee C. Marabay · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Caracas FC vs Monagas SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Caracas FC and 1.03 for Monagas SC, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Caracas FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Caracas FC win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caracas FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monagas SC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–18.2%
Recent form
Caracas FC
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Yaracuyanos FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitanos FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Monagas SC · 0-1 (L)
Monagas SC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Caracas FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 0-1 Monagas SC (Primera División)
- 2026-03-22T23:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 1-1 Monagas SC (Primera División)
- 2025-09-28T21:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 2-2 Monagas SC (Primera División)
- 2025-04-18T20:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 1-4 Monagas SC (Primera División)
- 2024-09-20T21:45:00.000Z · Caracas FC 1-2 Monagas SC (Primera División)
- 2024-03-24T21:45:00.000Z · Caracas FC 1-1 Monagas SC (Primera División)
- 2024-01-28T19:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 3-2 Monagas SC (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-06-24T22:15:00.000Z · Caracas FC 2-0 Monagas SC (Primera División)
- 2023-05-20T22:15:00.000Z · Caracas FC 2-0 Monagas SC (Primera División)
- 2022-07-22T21:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 0-0 Monagas SC (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caracas FC win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.