Catanzaro vs Monza Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Catanzaro and 1.50 for Monza, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Monza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Monza or Draw

68.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.24 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Catanzaro win31%

Draw25%

Monza win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–19.6%
1–29.0%
1–08.0%
2–17.4%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Monza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 31% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Catanzaro and 1.50 for Monza, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Monza or Draw is the headline pick at 69% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Catanzaro

Monza

2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Avellino · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Padova · 3-3 (D)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 4-3 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Venezia	38	24	10	4	46	82
2	Frosinone	38	23	12	3	42	81
3	Monza	38	22	10	6	29	76
4	Palermo	38	20	12	6	28	72
5	Catanzaro	38	15	14	9	11	59
6	Modena	38	15	10	13	13	55
7	Juve Stabia	38	11	18	9	-1	51
8	Avellino	38	13	10	15	-12	49
9	Mantova	38	13	7	18	-12	46
10	Padova	38	12	10	16	-10	46
11	Cesena	38	12	10	16	-11	46
12	Carrarese	38	10	14	14	-5	44
13	Sampdoria	38	11	11	16	-13	44
14	Virtus Entella	38	10	12	16	-15	42
15	Empoli	38	9	14	15	-7	41
16	Sudtirol	38	8	17	13	-10	41
17	Bari	38	10	10	18	-22	40
18	Reggiana	38	9	10	19	-20	37
19	Spezia	38	8	11	19	-16	35
20	Pescara	38	7	14	17	-15	35

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.