· Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.41 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Celta Vigo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.
Model pick
Celta Vigo or Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.4%
Why the model likes this
Celta Vigo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Madrid away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celta Vigo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.41 for Real Madrid, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Celta Vigo
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 2-2 (D)
Real Madrid
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.