Estadio General Pablo Rojas · Referee Mario Diaz De Vivar, Paraguay · Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Cerro Porteno vs 2 de Mayo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cerro Porteno and 0.83 for 2 de Mayo, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Cerro Porteno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cerro Porteno win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cerro Porteno home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
2 de Mayo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cerro Porteno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Cerro Porteno and 0.83 for 2 de Mayo, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–19.1%
Recent form
Cerro Porteno
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
2 de Mayo
- 2026-09-18T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Asuncion · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Libertad Asuncion · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Luqueno · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | Olimpia | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Sportivo Trinidense | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cerro Porteno win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.