Ceuta II vs Conil Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Ceuta II and 1.22 for Conil, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Ceuta II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ceuta II home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Conil away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ceuta II win39%

Draw27%

Conil win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–010.3%
0–19.6%
2–18.4%
0–07.8%

Recent form

Ceuta II

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiclana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egabrense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Roque Lepe · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dos Hermanas · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 2-2 (D)

Conil

2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Córdoba II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cádiz II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-03-28T16:30:00.000Z · Ceuta II 1-0 Conil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
2025-11-15T15:15:00.000Z · Ceuta II 2-0 Conil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
2025-03-15T12:00:00.000Z · Ceuta II 2-0 Conil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
2024-11-02T12:00:00.000Z · Ceuta II 1-0 Conil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
2024-03-03T10:30:00.000Z · Ceuta II 0-0 Conil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
2023-10-22T11:00:00.000Z · Ceuta II 2-1 Conil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
2023-02-04T15:15:00.000Z · Ceuta II 0-3 Conil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
2022-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · Ceuta II 3-0 Conil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
2022-03-05T12:00:00.000Z · Ceuta II 2-0 Conil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)
2021-11-06T16:30:00.000Z · Ceuta II 2-0 Conil (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Utrera	6	5	0	1	3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Portuense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Betis C	6	4	1	1	6	13
5	Tomares	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Egabrense	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Chiclana	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Linense	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Conil	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Bollullos	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.