CNF Buftea · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
CS Afumati vs Ştefăneşti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for CS Afumati and 1.03 for Ştefăneşti, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives CS Afumati the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CS Afumati win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CS Afumati home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ştefăneşti away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CS Afumati to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for CS Afumati and 1.03 for Ştefăneşti, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
CS Afumati
- 2026-10-02T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Satu Mare · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Targu Mures · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-1 (W)
Ştefăneşti
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metaloglobus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Bihor Oradea · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetatea Suceava · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Liga II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slatina | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | Popești-Leordeni | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | FC Bacau | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 6 | Chindia Targoviste | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 7 | Concordia | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Cetatea Suceava | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 9 | Metalul Buzău | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18 |
| 10 | CS Afumati | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 11 | Bihor Oradea | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 12 | Gloria Bistriţa | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Metaloglobus | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | ASA Targu Mures | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Unirea Slobozia | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 17 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | CS Dinamo București | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 19 | CSM Satu Mare | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 20 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 6 |
| 21 | Ştefăneşti | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -16 | 6 |
| 22 | Dumbrăviţa | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CS Afumati win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.