Stadion Dragalevtsi · Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
CSKA Sofia II vs Sportist Svoge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for CSKA Sofia II and 1.05 for Sportist Svoge, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives CSKA Sofia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CSKA Sofia II win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSKA Sofia II home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportist Svoge away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.6%
Recent form
CSKA Sofia II
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dobrudzha · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Pleven · 5-1 (W)
Sportist Svoge
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihren · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Beroe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilski Sportist · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T08:00:00.000Z · CSKA Sofia II 2-1 Sportist Svoge (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · CSKA Sofia II 1-0 Sportist Svoge (Second League)
- 2025-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · CSKA Sofia II 6-0 Sportist Svoge (Second League)
- 2025-02-17T12:00:00.000Z · CSKA Sofia II 0-0 Sportist Svoge (Second League)
- 2024-08-04T15:00:00.000Z · CSKA Sofia II 1-2 Sportist Svoge (Second League)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Vihren | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Rilski Sportist | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Yantra 2019 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Beroe | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | Marek | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 15 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSKA Sofia II win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.