D. La Serena vs Concepción Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for D. La Serena and 1.18 for Concepción, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives D. La Serena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

D. La Serena home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Concepción away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates D. La Serena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for D. La Serena and 1.18 for Concepción, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

D. La Serena win38%

Draw28%

Concepción win35%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.0%
1–011.1%
0–110.4%
0–08.8%
2–18.1%

Recent form

D. La Serena

2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-31T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobresal · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-14T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2-0 (W)

Concepción

2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Colo Colo · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	24	17	3	4	23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	13	3	7	17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	13	39
5	Palestino	24	11	4	9	3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	10	4	10	8	34
7	Coquimbo Unido	23	9	5	9	3	32
8	Concepción	24	9	5	10	-1	32
9	Nublense	24	8	8	8	-9	32
10	Huachipato	23	9	4	10	-6	31
11	D. La Serena	24	7	9	8	-5	30
12	A. Italiano	23	7	7	9	-5	28
13	O'Higgins	24	8	3	13	-10	27
14	Cobresal	24	7	4	13	-10	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	6	5	13	-22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	4	6	14	-21	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.