Estadio Abel Sastre · Analysis updated 05:39 UTC
Deportivo Madryn vs Racing Cordoba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Deportivo Madryn and 0.63 for Racing Cordoba, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Deportivo Madryn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Madryn win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Madryn home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Cordoba away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Madryn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 28% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Deportivo Madryn and 0.63 for Racing Cordoba, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–18.2%
Recent form
Deportivo Madryn
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs San Telmo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Acassuso · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaco For Ever · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro Carril Oeste · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Norte · 0-0 (D)
Racing Cordoba
- 2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs All Boys · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro Carril Oeste · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Andes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Central Norte · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Godoy Cruz · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 35 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 65 |
| 2 | Godoy Cruz | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 63 |
| 3 | Deportivo Moron | 35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 58 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 35 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Colon Santa Fe | 35 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 57 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 51 |
| 7 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | -1 | 51 |
| 8 | CA Estudiantes | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 49 |
| 9 | Chaco For Ever | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 43 |
| 10 | Los Andes | 35 | 9 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 42 |
| 11 | Racing Cordoba | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | -11 | 40 |
| 12 | Atletico Mitre | 35 | 8 | 15 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 | Defensores De Belgrano | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | -7 | 38 |
| 14 | Central Norte | 35 | 7 | 17 | 11 | -8 | 38 |
| 15 | All Boys | 35 | 7 | 17 | 11 | -9 | 38 |
| 16 | San Telmo | 35 | 9 | 11 | 15 | -12 | 38 |
| 17 | Acassuso | 35 | 8 | 10 | 17 | -10 | 34 |
| 18 | San Miguel | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | -14 | 32 |
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 35 | 16 | 15 | 4 | 18 | 63 |
| 2 | Atlanta | 35 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 61 |
| 3 | Temperley | 35 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 60 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 35 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 58 |
| 5 | Midland | 35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 54 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 35 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 52 |
| 7 | Deportivo Maipu | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 51 |
| 8 | Colegiales | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 51 |
| 9 | San Martin S.J. | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 47 |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 35 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 46 |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | -6 | 46 |
| 12 | Agropecuario | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 43 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 42 |
| 14 | Almagro | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | -10 | 42 |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 35 | 11 | 6 | 18 | -8 | 39 |
| 16 | Patronato | 35 | 7 | 16 | 12 | -6 | 37 |
| 17 | Nueva Chicago | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | -9 | 36 |
| 18 | Club Atlético Güemes | 35 | 6 | 8 | 21 | -34 | 26 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Madryn win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.