Estadio Guillermo Laza · Referee Pablo Echavarria · Analysis updated 01:12 UTC
Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra and 0.72 for Union Santa Fe, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Deportivo Riestra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.0% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Riestra home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union Santa Fe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Riestra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 33% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Deportivo Riestra and 0.72 for Union Santa Fe, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 0–017.4%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–09.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.62 (model 67.0% vs market 57.6%, edge +9.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.62 | 57.6% | 67.0% | 1.49 | +9.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.70 | 24.7% | 25.0% | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 32.7% | 32.9% | 3.04 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.0% | 67.1% | 1.49 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 57.9% | 57.9% | 1.73 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.1% | 75.0% | 1.33 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 42.6% | 42.1% | 2.38 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.20 | 42.4% | 33.0% | 3.03 | -9.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Deportivo Riestra
- 2026-10-20T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-3 (L)
Union Santa Fe
- 2026-10-20T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-20T00:15:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 1-1 Union Santa Fe (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-04-03T20:15:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 0-2 Union Santa Fe (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · Deportivo Riestra 0-0 Union Santa Fe (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.