Pride Park · Referee T. Nield · Analysis updated 21:59 UTC
Derby vs Sheffield Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Derby and 1.18 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Derby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–08.4%
- 2–18.3%
Why the model likes this
Derby home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Sheffield Utd away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Derby and 1.18 for Sheffield Utd, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
Derby
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Rotherham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burton Albion · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mansfield Town · 3-1 (W)
Sheffield Utd
- 2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mansfield Town · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotherham · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-21T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Watford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | West Ham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Burnley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.