Bulgaria · Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 3315:00

32

Saturday, 2 May 2026

· Analysis updated 01:49 UTC

Dimitrovgrad vs Sozopol Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Dimitrovgrad and 1.42 for Sozopol, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Dimitrovgrad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Dimitrovgrad or Draw

67.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.66 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Dimitrovgrad win43%
Draw24%
Sozopol win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams to score61%

Correct score

  • 1–110.8%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–27.7%
  • 1–07.6%
  • 0–16.5%

Why the model likes this

  • Sozopol away threat

    Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Dimitrovgrad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.66 goals for Dimitrovgrad and 1.42 for Sozopol, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Dimitrovgrad

    Sozopol

    • 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Plovdiv · 3-4 (L)
    • 2026-05-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rakovski 2011 · 4-1 (W)
    • 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sekirovo Rakovski · 1-0 (W)
    • 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sayana Haskovo · 1-0 (W)
    • 2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 0-0 (D)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.