Dos Hermanas vs Ceuta II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Dos Hermanas and 0.70 for Ceuta II, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Dos Hermanas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dos Hermanas win

61.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dos Hermanas home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ceuta II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dos Hermanas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Dos Hermanas and 0.70 for Ceuta II, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Dos Hermanas win61%

Draw24%

Ceuta II win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–015.4%
2–013.1%
1–110.8%
2–19.2%
0–09.1%

Recent form

Dos Hermanas

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceuta II · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Córdoba II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Linense · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Conil · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cádiz II · 0-0 (D)

Ceuta II

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiclana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egabrense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Roque Lepe · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dos Hermanas · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Utrera	6	5	0	1	3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Portuense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Betis C	6	4	1	1	6	13
5	Tomares	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Egabrense	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Chiclana	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Linense	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Conil	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Bollullos	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dos Hermanas win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.