· Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
Dover vs Braintree Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Dover and 1.59 for Braintree, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Dover the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.
Model pick
Dover to Win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 1.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–25.5%
Why the model likes this
Braintree away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dover to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Dover and 1.59 for Braintree, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 73%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
Dover
Braintree
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chesham United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tonbridge Angels · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldershot Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Felixstowe & Walton Utd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Colchester United U21 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weston-super-Mare | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | AFC Totton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 5 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Truro City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Torquay | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Tonbridge Angels | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Maidstone Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Billericay Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dover | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Farnborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Braintree | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Horsham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Chelmsford City | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Dorking Wanderers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Slough Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 21 | Farnham Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Chesham United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.