· Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Dubočica vs Semendrija 1924 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Dubočica and 1.50 for Semendrija 1924, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Semendrija 1924 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.6% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dubočica home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Semendrija 1924 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–27.6%
Recent form
Dubočica
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Ub · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Javor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs TSC Backa Topola · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 2-0 (W)
Semendrija 1924
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftagas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Loznica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Vozdovac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Vršac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Napredak · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · Dubočica 1-2 Semendrija 1924 (Prva Liga)
- 2025-11-23T12:00:00.000Z · Dubočica 0-4 Semendrija 1924 (Prva Liga)
- 2025-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · Dubočica 2-0 Semendrija 1924 (Prva Liga)
- 2025-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · Dubočica 2-1 Semendrija 1924 (Prva Liga)
- 2025-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Dubočica 1-0 Semendrija 1924 (Prva Liga)
- 2024-11-11T12:00:00.000Z · Dubočica 1-2 Semendrija 1924 (Prva Liga)
- 2024-03-10T13:00:00.000Z · Dubočica 0-3 Semendrija 1924 (Prva Liga)
- 2023-11-21T14:00:00.000Z · Dubočica 2-1 Semendrija 1924 (Prva Liga)
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Cacak | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 25 |
| 2 | TSC Backa Topola | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | Semendrija 1924 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | Javor | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 5 | OFK Vršac | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Metalac GM | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Napredak | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 8 | Dubočica | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | FK Vozdovac | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Loznica | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 15 |
| 12 | Naftagas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
| 13 | Grafičar | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Teleoptik | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | Jedinstvo Ub | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.