Duhok Stadium · Analysis updated 04:51 UTC
Duhok vs Al Zawra'a Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Duhok and 1.50 for Al Zawra'a, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Al Zawra'a the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Zawra'a win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Duhok home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Zawra'a away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–08.2%
Recent form
Duhok
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Karbala · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jolan SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Zawra'a · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Minaa Basra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Karkh · 2-3 (L)
Al Zawra'a
- 2026-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Shorta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghaz Al Shamal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Qatar SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Duhok · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gharraf · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · Duhok 3-0 Al Zawra'a (Iraqi League)
- 2026-05-01T16:30:00.000Z · Duhok 2-2 Al Zawra'a (Iraqi League)
- 2026-01-28T14:30:00.000Z · Duhok 0-0 Al Zawra'a (Iraqi League)
- 2025-04-03T15:30:00.000Z · Duhok 2-1 Al Zawra'a (Iraqi League)
- 2024-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · Duhok 0-1 Al Zawra'a (Iraqi League)
- 2024-07-19T16:30:00.000Z · Duhok 3-0 Al Zawra'a (Iraqi League)
- 2024-05-22T17:15:00.000Z · Duhok 1-1 Al Zawra'a (Iraqi League)
- 2023-12-08T18:30:00.000Z · Duhok 0-3 Al Zawra'a (Iraqi League)
- 2023-07-20T16:15:00.000Z · Duhok 1-1 Al Zawra'a (Iraqi League)
- 2023-03-01T15:15:00.000Z · Duhok 1-1 Al Zawra'a (Iraqi League)
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Naft | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Al Shorta | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Erbil | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Zawra'a | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Duhok | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Minaa Basra | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Al Talaba | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Diyala | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Mosul | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Zakho | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Zawra'a win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.