Düren Merzenich vs TuS BW Königsdorf Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Düren Merzenich and 3.50 for TuS BW Königsdorf, a combined total of 6.50. That distribution gives TuS BW Königsdorf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 94% for over 2.5 goals and 91% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

TuS BW Königsdorf win

49.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.00 – 3.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Düren Merzenich home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TuS BW Königsdorf away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TuS BW Königsdorf to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 35% / 16% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Düren Merzenich and 3.50 for TuS BW Königsdorf, a combined 6.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Düren Merzenich win35%

Draw16%

TuS BW Königsdorf win50%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals98%

Over 2.5 goals94%

Over 3.5 goals88%

Both teams to score91%

Correct score

2–34.8%
3–34.8%
2–44.2%
3–44.2%
2–24.1%

Recent form

Düren Merzenich

2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Porz · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Köln II · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hennef 05 · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS BW Königsdorf · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wegberg-Beeck · 1-2 (L)

TuS BW Königsdorf

2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hennef 05 · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wegberg-Beeck · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 0-7 (L)
2026-08-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bornheim · 1-4 (L)
2026-06-07T13:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Vichttal · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Mittelrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wegberg-Beeck	9	7	1	1	12	22
2	SSV Merten	9	6	1	2	18	19
3	Eintracht Hohkeppel	9	5	2	2	8	17
4	Frechen	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	Düren Merzenich	9	5	1	3	2	16
6	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	9	4	3	2	1	15
7	Fortuna Köln II	8	4	1	3	4	13
8	VfL Vichttal	9	3	3	3	7	12
9	Bornheim	9	4	0	5	0	12
10	Siegburger SV	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Hürth	9	2	4	3	-4	10
12	Chlodwig Zulpich	9	3	1	5	-5	10
13	Hennef 05	9	3	1	5	-6	10
14	TuS BW Königsdorf	8	2	0	6	-23	6
15	Porz	9	1	2	6	-7	5
16	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	9	1	2	6	-10	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is TuS BW Königsdorf win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 91% and over 2.5 goals at 94%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.