Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.40 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Deportivo La Coruna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Espanyol home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo La Coruna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Espanyol win36%

Draw26%

Deportivo La Coruna win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.1%
0–18.9%
1–08.6%
1–28.5%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Espanyol

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 2-0 (W)

Deportivo La Coruna

2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Penafiel · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2018-02-23T20:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
2017-09-24T10:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 4-1 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
2017-05-07T16:30:00.000Z · Espanyol 2-1 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
2017-01-06T19:45:00.000Z · Espanyol 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
2016-02-20T17:15:00.000Z · Espanyol 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
2015-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 0-3 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
2015-03-22T11:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
2014-10-26T15:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
2013-05-19T15:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 0-2 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
2012-12-20T21:00:00.000Z · Espanyol 2-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	8	1	1	12	25
3	Real Madrid	9	7	0	2	14	21
4	Real Betis	10	6	2	2	2	20
5	Real Sociedad	9	5	1	3	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	4	2	3	-2	14
7	Alaves	10	3	3	4	3	12
8	Athletic Club	9	3	3	3	3	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	2	6	2	3	12
10	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	1	12
11	Deportivo La Coruna	10	2	5	3	0	11
12	Osasuna	9	3	2	4	-8	11
13	Racing Santander	10	3	2	5	-11	11
14	Levante	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Elche	10	2	4	4	-3	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	-8	9
17	Getafe	10	2	3	5	-10	9
18	Espanyol	10	2	2	6	-2	8
19	Valencia	10	1	3	6	-10	6
20	Malaga	10	0	5	5	-12	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.