Estudiantes L.P. vs Barracas Central Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.84 for Barracas Central, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Estudiantes L.P. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Estudiantes L.P. win

52.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.84

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Estudiantes L.P. win53%

Draw26%

Barracas Central win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.6%
1–112.2%
2–010.8%
0–09.8%
2–19.0%

Why the model likes this

Estudiantes L.P. home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barracas Central away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Recent form

Estudiantes L.P.

2026-08-15T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 3-0 (W)

Barracas Central

2026-08-09T20:45:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T22:15:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-03T00:10:00.000Z · H vs Huracan · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2025-10-05T19:30:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 1-1 Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-03-27T21:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 1-2 Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 1-1 Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-04-20T21:30:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 3-0 Barracas Central (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
2023-06-02T22:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 5-2 Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-07-20T22:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 3-1 Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-04-16T22:00:00.000Z · Estudiantes L.P. 6-1 Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.