FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for FC Levadia Tallinn and 0.69 for Tammeka, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives FC Levadia Tallinn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Levadia Tallinn win

81.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.88 – 0.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Levadia Tallinn home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tammeka away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Levadia Tallinn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 12% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for FC Levadia Tallinn and 0.69 for Tammeka, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Levadia Tallinn win82%

Draw12%

Tammeka win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

18%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

2–011.7%
3–011.2%
1–08.1%
4–08.1%
2–18.1%

Recent form

FC Levadia Tallinn

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Keila · 10-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 1-1 (D)

Tammeka

2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Meistriliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	33	26	6	1	66	84
2	Paide	33	18	6	9	14	60
3	Flora Tallinn	34	19	1	14	15	58
4	Kalju Nomme	33	16	6	11	22	54
5	Tammeka	33	16	2	15	-5	50
6	Laagri	34	15	2	17	-1	47
7	Vaprus	33	10	6	17	-22	36
8	Kuressaare	33	10	5	18	-18	35
9	Nõmme United	33	11	1	21	-22	34
10	Trans Narva	33	5	5	23	-49	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Levadia Tallinn win, at 81.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.