Stade de Tourbillon · Referee L. Fahndrich · Analysis updated 09:08 UTC
FC Sion vs FC Luzern Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for FC Sion and 2.50 for FC Luzern, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives FC Sion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
59.2% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 2–35.5%
- 3–25.5%
- 1–25.3%
- 2–15.3%
Why the model likes this
FC Sion home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Luzern away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Sion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 18% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for FC Sion and 2.50 for FC Luzern, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
FC Sion
- 2026-08-13T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Noah · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Vaduz · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Noah · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-30T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 4-0 (W)
FC Luzern
- 2026-08-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC ST. Gallen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Sion · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Thun · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Truiden · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC WIL 1900 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 3 | FC ST. Gallen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | FC Sion | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Lausanne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Servette FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Zurich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Grasshoppers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | FC Luzern | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | FC Vaduz | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.