Urartu Stadium · Analysis updated 06:09 UTC
FC Urartu vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC Urartu and 1.55 for Ararat-Armenia, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Ararat-Armenia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ararat-Armenia away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ararat-Armenia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 33% / 25% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for FC Urartu and 1.55 for Ararat-Armenia, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
FC Urartu
Ararat-Armenia
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BKMA · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alashkert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Shirak | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | BKMA | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 11 | Syunik | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 5 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.