Tony Bezzina Stadium · Referee S. Petrovic · Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Floriana vs Mosta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Floriana and 1.48 for Mosta, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Floriana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Floriana home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mosta away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.7%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Floriana
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Balzan FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernians · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Marsaxlokk · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Valletta FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gzira United · 4-1 (W)
Mosta
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sliema Wanderers · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Marsaxlokk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Birkirkara · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Balzan FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-17T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamrun Spartans · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-25T15:30:00.000Z · Floriana 2-1 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2025-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · Floriana 1-0 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2025-04-27T15:45:00.000Z · Floriana 3-0 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2025-03-05T20:00:00.000Z · Floriana 2-0 Mosta (FA Trophy)
- 2025-03-02T12:45:00.000Z · Floriana 2-2 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2024-11-23T12:30:00.000Z · Floriana 1-0 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2024-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · Floriana 2-1 Mosta (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · Floriana 2-0 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2024-04-13T12:00:00.000Z · Floriana 4-0 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2023-12-09T16:00:00.000Z · Floriana 3-0 Mosta (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marsaxlokk | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Valletta FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 3 | Floriana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Mosta | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Sliema Wanderers | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Balzan FC | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Birkirkara | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernians | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 3 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.