Fulham vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Fulham and 1.25 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Fulham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Fulham or Draw

67.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Fulham win42%

Draw26%

Newcastle win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.1%
1–09.6%
2–18.9%
0–18.2%
1–27.6%

Why the model likes this

Fulham home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fulham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Fulham and 1.25 for Newcastle, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Fulham

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Farense · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 1-1 (D)

Newcastle

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Gateshead · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	-41	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.