· Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
Gharraf vs Al-Jolan SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Gharraf and 1.38 for Al-Jolan SC, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Al-Jolan SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Jolan SC win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gharraf home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Jolan SC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Jolan SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 27% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Gharraf and 1.38 for Al-Jolan SC, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–28.8%
Recent form
Gharraf
- 2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karbala · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jolan SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Zawra'a · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Diyala · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Shorta · 1-2 (L)
Al-Jolan SC
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Talaba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Newroz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zakho · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Ghaz Al Shamal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Diyala · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Naft | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Al Zawra'a | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Erbil | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Shorta | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Duhok | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Diyala | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Minaa Basra | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Al Talaba | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Mosul | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Zakho | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Jolan SC win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.