Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Gimnasia L.P. and 1.20 for Sarmiento Junin, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Gimnasia L.P. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Gimnasia L.P. to Win

49.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Gimnasia L.P. win49%

Draw24%

Sarmiento Junin win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–19.5%
1–09.4%
2–08.0%
1–26.7%

Why the model likes this

Gimnasia L.P. home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento Junin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia L.P. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Gimnasia L.P. and 1.20 for Sarmiento Junin, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Gimnasia L.P.

2026-08-09T20:45:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T22:15:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)

Sarmiento Junin

2026-08-08T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-03T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-23T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-17T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Velez Sarsfield	4	3	1	0	4	10
2	Instituto Cordoba	4	3	0	1	2	9
3	Newells Old Boys	5	2	1	2	1	7
4	Defensa Y Justicia	4	2	1	1	-1	7
5	Estudiantes L.P.	5	2	0	3	2	6
6	Lanus	4	2	0	2	2	6
7	Deportivo Riestra	5	2	0	3	1	6
8	Independiente	4	2	0	2	1	6
9	Gimnasia M.	4	2	0	2	1	6
10	Central Cordoba de Santiago	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Boca Juniors	5	1	3	1	-2	6
12	San Lorenzo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Platense	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Union Santa Fe	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Talleres Cordoba	4	1	0	3	-2	3
1	Argentinos JRS	4	4	0	0	6	12
2	Belgrano Cordoba	5	3	1	1	4	10
3	Barracas Central	4	3	0	1	1	9
4	Gimnasia L.P.	5	3	0	2	-1	9
5	Tigre	5	2	2	1	2	8
6	Huracan	4	2	1	1	2	7
7	Rosario Central	4	2	1	1	1	7
8	Independ. Rivadavia	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Banfield	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Sarmiento Junin	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Atletico Tucuman	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Aldosivi	5	0	2	3	-3	2
15	River Plate	4	0	0	4	-4	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.