Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gimnasia L.P. and 0.70 for Sarmiento Junin, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Gimnasia L.P. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Gimnasia L.P. win

51.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gimnasia L.P. home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento Junin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia L.P. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 29% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Gimnasia L.P. and 0.70 for Sarmiento Junin, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Gimnasia L.P. win51%

Draw29%

Sarmiento Junin win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.6%
0–013.5%
1–112.3%
2–011.4%
0–19.5%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.73 (model 63.4% vs market 53.6%, edge +9.8 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	1.73	53.6%	63.4%	1.58	+9.8
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.95	48.2%	49.1%	2.04	+0.9
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.18	79.6%	80.0%	1.25	+0.4
Match result	Draw	3.20	28.7%	29.0%	3.45	+0.3
Match result	Home	1.80	51.0%	51.0%	1.96	0.0
Match result	Away	4.50	20.4%	20.1%	4.98	-0.3
Double chance	Home/Away	1.30	72.2%	71.1%	1.41	-1.1
Both teams to score	Yes	2.00	46.4%	36.6%	2.73	-9.8

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Gimnasia L.P.

2026-10-15T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-1 (D)

Sarmiento Junin

2026-10-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	9	2	2	10	29
2	Boca Juniors	13	6	6	1	7	24
3	Defensa Y Justicia	13	7	3	3	6	24
4	Velez Sarsfield	13	6	6	1	5	24
5	Lanus	13	7	2	4	7	23
6	Newells Old Boys	13	5	5	3	3	20
7	Gimnasia M.	13	6	2	5	2	20
8	Independiente	13	5	4	4	-1	19
9	San Lorenzo	13	5	2	6	-5	17
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	4	2	7	1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	13	4	2	7	-4	14
12	Deportivo Riestra	13	2	6	5	-3	12
13	Platense	13	2	5	6	-7	11
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	13	2	3	8	-8	9
1	Rosario Central	13	7	4	2	9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	7	4	2	6	25
3	Belgrano Cordoba	13	6	4	3	4	22
4	Gimnasia L.P.	13	6	4	3	1	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	13	6	3	4	3	21
6	River Plate	13	6	2	5	5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	5	4	4	1	19
8	Huracan	13	5	4	4	0	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	5	4	4	-4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	13	3	5	5	-1	14
11	Tigre	13	3	4	6	-2	13
12	Banfield	13	3	4	6	-5	13
13	Racing Club	13	3	3	7	-6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	2	3	8	-9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	2	2	9	-8	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gimnasia L.P. win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.