Ecuador · Liga Pro · Matchweek 3021:30

3 – 1

Saturday, 12 September 2026

Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt · Referee Gorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano, Ecuador · Analysis updated 00:50 UTC

Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Guayaquil City FC and 1.18 for Mushuc Runa SC, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Guayaquil City FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guayaquil City FC home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mushuc Runa SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guayaquil City FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Guayaquil City FC and 1.18 for Mushuc Runa SC, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Guayaquil City FC win42%

Draw26%

Mushuc Runa SC win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–010.6%
0–18.9%
2–18.8%
0–07.5%

Recent form

Guayaquil City FC

2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Emelec · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Leones del Norte · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Mushuc Runa SC · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Orense SC · 3-4 (L)

Mushuc Runa SC

2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Cuenca · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Guayaquil City FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones del Norte · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Delfin SC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Pro table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21
1	Independiente del Valle	33	25	3	5	40	78
2	Macara	34	19	6	9	12	63
3	Universidad Catolica	34	14	11	9	22	53
4	LDU de Quito	34	15	8	11	8	53
5	Aucas	33	14	9	10	3	51
6	Barcelona SC	32	11	12	9	6	45
7	Libertad	34	14	8	12	4	50
8	Guayaquil City FC	34	12	10	12	-5	46
9	Leones del Norte	34	11	10	13	-3	43
10	Emelec	34	11	9	14	-10	42
11	Deportivo Cuenca	34	12	8	14	-9	44
12	Mushuc Runa SC	33	9	13	11	-4	40
13	Orense SC	34	10	8	16	-8	38
14	Delfin SC	34	9	8	17	-13	35
15	Tecnico Universitario	33	10	3	20	-16	33
16	Manta FC	34	7	6	21	-27	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.