· Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Guiseley AFC vs Cleethorpes Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Guiseley AFC and 1.30 for Cleethorpes Town, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives Cleethorpes Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guiseley AFC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cleethorpes Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cleethorpes Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 34% / 27% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Guiseley AFC and 1.30 for Cleethorpes Town, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–08.1%
Recent form
Guiseley AFC
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Alfreton Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bamber Bridge · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hebburn Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Quorn · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stockton Town · 2-1 (W)
Cleethorpes Town
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hyde United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Workington · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lancaster City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Redcar Athletic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ashton United · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 30 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Avro | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 5 | Gainsborough Trinity | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 6 | Workington | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Warrington Town | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 |
| 8 | Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Curzon Ashton | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 10 | Alfreton Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 20 |
| 11 | Lancaster City | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 20 |
| 12 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 13 | Whitby Town | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 19 |
| 14 | Hyde United | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 15 |
| 15 | Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 16 | Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 18 | AFC Emley | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 21 | Ilkeston Town | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 10 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.