Harstad vs Fløya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Harstad and 1.95 for Fløya, a combined total of 5.45. That distribution gives Harstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Harstad win

66.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.50 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Harstad home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fløya away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Harstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 15% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.50 goals for Harstad and 1.95 for Fløya, a combined 5.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Harstad win67%

Draw15%

Fløya win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals90%

Over 3.5 goals78%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

3–16.0%
3–25.8%
4–15.2%
2–15.1%
4–25.1%

Recent form

Harstad

2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulfstind · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromsø II · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fløya · 3-2 (W)

Fløya

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Harstad · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Skedsmo	23	16	2	5	23	50
2	Fløya	23	14	3	6	29	45
3	Alta	23	13	6	4	26	45
4	Harstad	23	13	4	6	36	43
5	Finnsnes	23	11	4	8	5	37
6	Skjetten	23	10	3	10	5	33
7	Kongsvinger II	23	10	2	11	-17	32
8	Fauske Sprint	23	9	4	10	-15	31
9	Lillestrøm II	23	9	1	13	13	28
10	Tromsø II	23	7	6	10	4	27
11	Strømsgodset II	23	8	3	12	-3	27
12	Skjervøy	23	8	3	12	-21	27
13	Bossekop	23	5	4	14	-42	19
14	Ulfstind	23	4	3	16	-43	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Harstad win, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.